The slippery slope of the election exit poll
As the election is drawing to a close in the Netherlands today, I read a news story earlier mentioning that Hans Laroes, editor-in-chief of the NOS, sent an e-mail to his colleague Harm Taselaar at RTL regarding exit polls.
RTL is planning to air the results of their exit polls 10 minutes before the closing of the polling places, which caused Mr. Laroes to write an open letter:
“I believe it is good custom to let the voters do their job on election day, not hindered by voting advice, interim surveys or whatever. Not by anything that smells like manipulation.”
“It seems to me that you have to compete with good subjects and meaningful debates. Not with a race against time that plays out during the hours when voters can still cast their vote.”
Mr. Taselaar replied that with 10 minutes left, there is no time for anyone to “put his coat on, jump on his bike, and hastily ride toward the polling place, so he can cast his vote one minute before nine to influence the election.”
Although Mr. Taselaar makes a reasonable point—practically there is no way those 10 minutes will influence the election—he is going down a very slippery slope. Yes, it will get his network the ratings, but at the cost of a deterioration of the democratic and electoral process. As Martin Plissner states in a Slate article, exit polls are “like any sophisticated weapon, they are dangerous in the hands of the untrained.”
Every election is a competition by default. But as Mr. Laroes writes, do you want that competition to be about good subjects and meaningful debates, or do you want it to be about crossing the finish line first and identifying winners?
Airing exit polls before closing time, especially in an election with many different parties, such as the Dutch election, includes the risk that people might forsake their reasoned vote to cast a strategic vote. All because, according to the exit polls, the other party is just one seat away from victory. I believe it is a bad development when people let go of their ideals to go with the strategic option. That’s certainly not why we vote.
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